AI Bottlenecks Dashboard

conceptconfidence: mediumupdated: 2026-05-11sourcewatchlistthesissectordata-quality

AI Bottlenecks Dashboard

What it is

Public dashboard at https://aibottlenecks.app/app that maps AI infrastructure into physical bottleneck baskets. The dashboard expands the original ai bottleneck beta article from a narrative claim into a live watchlist, theme basket, and catalyst tracker.

Observed structure

  • Watchlist: 96 names.
  • Theme baskets: labeled 15 baskets; observed themes include InP & Substrates, Photonics / CPO, HBM / Packaging, Memory Supercycle, Power & Grid, Cooling, Custom Silicon, Networking / Retimers, Connectors & Interconnect, AI Cloud / Neoclouds, Construction & MEP, Storage, Rare Earths, and Lithography & Fab Tools.
  • Catalyst tracker: observed next catalyst was ALAB Q1 print plus COHR Q3 FY26 print; China Ga/Ge/Sb expiry was shown as Nov 27, 2026.
  • Quote source note: Yahoo ~15m delay.

What the dashboard adds to the thesis

The dashboard gives ai physical stack watchlist a concrete implementation: a 96-name universe, theme groupings, conviction labels, target-weight points, bull/bear targets, triggers, and equal-weight basket charts. It also strengthens the route-card framing behind hbm manufacturing bottlenecks by separating the AI trade into manufacturing and infrastructure stations rather than a single broad AI bucket.

Data-quality flags

  • Basket methodology is not fully documented in the observed page text.
  • Basket counts in the theme tab differ from watchlist counts for several categories, so the performance charts may be based on selected subsets rather than every watchlist name.
  • The theme tab says 15 baskets, but the watchlist themes extracted from the client bundle total 14; the visible theme tab also includes an Outliers basket with 0 names.
  • Displayed returns are dashboard outputs, not independently verified market data.
  • Bull/bear targets are useful for monitoring but require primary-source valuation work before investment use.

Diligence priority

Before using the dashboard for position sizing or basket construction, verify:

  1. Constituent inclusion rules.
  2. Equal-weight methodology and rebalance rules.
  3. Price source, split/dividend adjustment, and currency conversion.
  4. Whether returns are point-in-time or subject to survivorship / look-ahead bias.
  5. Material revenue exposure of each company to its assigned bottleneck.

Glass substrate follow-up

The dashboard already flagged glass/T-glass as a next-layer watch item; PhotonCap provides a more explicit framework for the glass substrate cycle, including TGV/metallization bottlenecks and a GVM scoring framework. See glass substrate cycle.

Local source refs

  • raw/articles/ai-bottlenecks-dashboard-snapshot-2026-05-11.md
  • raw/articles/photoncap-glass-substrate-cycle-2026-05-08.md